- Nagel: ECB rates near neutral as inflation outlook stabilises ahead of December forecasts
- Anna Breman takes charge at RBNZ, pledging focus and credibility
- Recap – China export-oriented factory PMI falls back into contraction as new orders weaken
- Barclays: December Fed rate cut “more than likely” despite expected dissents
- Indonesia central bank governor: Will bring rupiah to trade at 16,500 or 16,400 next year
- Japan’s PM Takaichi promises to continue fiscal management
- BOJ’s Ueda flags FX-driven inflation risks as households feel squeeze from higher prices
- Bitcoin dumped again
- China S&P Global Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI 49.9 (expected 50.5)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0750 (vs. estimate at 7.0709)
- Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says will raise rates if prices, economy move as forecast
- Japan Jibun / S&P Global manufacturing PMI, November final, 48.7 (prior 48.2)
- Australian Q3 business inventories -0.9% q/q (expected 0%)
- UK services optimism plunges to three-year low as costs surge, CBI warns
- Australia’s MI inflation stays firm in November as annual rate edges up to 3.2%
- Japan Q3 capex disappoints while company profits surge nearly 20%
- South Korea boosts FX oversight with new reviews, investor checks and swap-line talks
- OPEC+ holds 2026 oil quotas, pauses output hikes and approves new capacity rules
- Sunday evening Globex trade is open, equity index futures little changed, oil higher
- Rubio on Ukraine meeting, “productive” and “there’s more work to be done.”
- Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI November, final 51.6 (prior 49.7)
- New Zealand October building permits -0.9% m/m (prior +7.3%)
- Trump confirms he had a phone call with Venezuelan President Maduro
- China’s factory and service PMIs contract again as holiday boost fades, recovery softens
- Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 01 December 2025
- Newsquawk Week Ahead: Potential Fed Chair pick, US ISM PMIs, US PCE, EZ CPI, Canada Jobs
The yen strengthened through the session, both ahead of and after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speech, — as Japanese government bond yields surged to fresh multi-year highs.
- Japan’s 2-year JGB yield hit 1.00%, the highest in 17 years, while the 5-year rose 4 bps to 1.35% and the 10-year climbed 4.5 bps to 1.845%, levels last seen in June 2008.
Ueda struck a more hawkish tone in remarks to business leaders in Nagoya, saying the BOJ will assess the “pros and cons” of raising interest rates at its December meeting. He also offered a more upbeat view of the economy. Markets took the comments as keeping the door open to a near-term rate hike.
Japan’s Q3 corporate results painted a mixed picture. Firms cut capital spending after five quarters of growth, pointing to softer sentiment as U.S. tariffs bite. But profitability sharply outperformed: company profits surged 19.7% y/y, far above forecasts and rebounding from 0.2% previously, a divergence showing cautious investment despite stronger earnings.
Major FX elsewhere were rangebound.
In Australia, the Melbourne Institute inflation gauge held firm, with November CPI rising 0.3% m/m and edging up to 3.2% y/y, likely reinforcing expectations that the RBA will stay cautious and push back against near-term easing bets.
Gold rallied, while silver jumped more than 5% from its breakoput level circa $54.50, extending a six-day run.
Bitcoin fell, with the most notable development being S&P’s downgrade of Tether’s ability to maintain its USD peg. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warned Tether could become insolvent if the value of its gold and Bitcoin reserves dropped by ~30%, though it’s unclear this was the driver.
From China, weekend PMI data confirmed the economy lost momentum in November.
The official manufacturing PMI inched up to 49.2, still in contraction for an eighth month, while non-manufacturing slipped to 49.5, its first decline since late 2022.
On Monday, the RatingDog private manufacturing PMI also fell back into contraction at 49.9 from 50.6, with softer domestic orders overshadowing an eight-month high in export demand.
Australia’s data flow today brought a downside surprise: Q3 inventories slid -0.9% vs. 0% expected, a clear negative input for Wednesday’s GDP.
OPEC+ over the weekend agreed to maintain 2026 output quotas and approved a long-discussed framework for assessing members’ maximum production capacity. Eight producers also agreed in principle to extend their pause on output hikes through Q1 2026, after returning nearly 3 million barrels per day to the market since April 2025. U.S. President Trump confirmed he had spoken with Venezuela’s President Maduro, while stressing Venezuela “is not a friendly country” and urging markets not to over-interpret the temporary airspace closure. Oil rose.
Finally, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said weekend talks with Ukraine made “additional progress,” describing the latest session as “productive” while cautioning that significant work remains.
Asia-Pac
stocks:
- Japan
(Nikkei 225) -1.8% - Hong
Kong (Hang Seng) +0.81% - Shanghai
Composite +0.42% - Australia
(S&P/ASX 200) -0.54%