Editor’s Note:
Bryan just showed me the numbers from his after-hours strategy during the last Fed chaos… and I’m honestly upset I wasn’t paying attention sooner. 85% win rate. $25K profit from $5K trades.
All during the most volatile sessions when everyone else was getting crushed.
He’s convinced the next 90 days are setting up for the biggest “Fed Shockwave” period we’ve seen in years.
I’m hosting a free breakdown with him this Wednesday, September 24th at 2 PM ET to show you exactly how this works.
===>RSVP for the Fed Shockwave Live Summit
–Ryan Fitzwater, Publisher
So we got the rate cut everyone saw coming. I was right there with you watching Powell during our live Fed watch party.
But here’s what keeps running through my head – two days ago, APA Corp ripped 8.5% while crude oil barely moved 1%.
That tells you something.
While everyone was glued to Fed watching yesterday, the smart money was already positioning in names like Apache.
This isn’t just another energy play riding oil momentum. This is a company that’s been transforming its balance sheet, and lower rates just handed them rocket fuel.
Strong Technicals + Fundamentals
They’ve already retired $2.2 billion in debt over the last twelve months.
Brought their leverage down to 0.75x EBITDA. Their target? $3 billion in total debt by 2030 – retiring over half their outstanding debt from the Callon acquisition.
APA just beat Q2 earnings while growing free cash flow 6% despite lower commodity prices.
They returned over 100% of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. The company is forecasting a 12% free cash flow yield for 2025 at current strip prices.
APA cut their rig count from 6.5 to 6 rigs but maintained stable production. They’ve saved $200 million year-to-date through CAPEX and G&A cuts.
Instead of chasing flashy initial production rates, they’re maximizing total recovery with smaller, more capital-efficient wells.
Their Egypt operations just expanded by 2 million acres, bringing their total to 7.5 million acres.
Nothing comparable exists in the United States. Revised contract terms are delivering a 10% production increase and 30% price increase by year-end. Their third-party natural gas profits jumped $30 million this quarter – a 25% gain.
Your Action Plan
APA’s production cost sits around the 40s. Crude is trading in the 60s. Now their borrowing costs are dropping. The company expects Q3 and Q4 free cash flow to jump by $200 million combined, putting them on track for roughly $800 million in FCF generation for 2025.
If crude oil pulls back, APA will feel it. That’s reality. But the fundamental transformation happening here suggests any weakness should be bought, not feared.
The market started pricing this in two days ago when APA moved 8x more than crude.
Now that rates are officially lower, the thesis just got stronger. Apache isn’t just riding the energy wave – they’re executing a complete financial makeover while the Fed just made capital cheaper.
I’ve been doing this for a long time. You can spot these setups. The rate cut delivered. Now watch what disciplined operators do with expanding margins.
These are exactly the type of plays we hunt for in Catalyst Cashouts.
If you’d like to learn more about this opportunity and others, click here to get started.