Logan has said this before but it’s notable that she will be a voter next year.
- Says she would need to see convincing evidence of inflation coming down or jobs market worsening to support December rate cut
Other regional voters are:
- Hammack (hawk)
- Kashkari (not a hawk but not as dovish as before)
- Paulson (said she favors gradual cuts)
I can’t see any of them supporting a December cut except Kashkari but they won’t have votes. However if we do get a cut in December, I certainly can’t see any of them supporting a January cut, barring a change in the data. That starts to align with the curve, which sees 80 bps through 2026. I tend to lean closer to 50 bps but does it really make that much of a difference to broader markets?