- The AUD/USD outlook shows a limited recovery in the Australian dollar as a firm dollar limits gains despite tariff optimism.
- China’s services PMI fell to 52.6, while Australia’s PMI rose to 52.5.
- Traders await US ADP job data, ISM services PMI, and President Trump’s remarks for further policy cues.
The AUD/USD outlook suggests a slight rebound in AUD on Wednesday as it traded near 0.6490, after recovering its daily losses. The development stemmed from the easing US-China trade tensions and China’s suspension of tariffs on US agricultural imports from November 10.
This move suspends a 24% levy on selected goods for a year. Given China’s and Australia’s trade relations, the Aussie drew slight support from this goodwill gesture between Washington and Beijing despite the ongoing global risk aversion.
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Regardless, the broader market risk-off sentiment amid the tech-led sell-off on Wall Street and declining Asian equities capped the AUD’s further uptrend. This shifted investors’ interest towards safe-haven assets.
In the US, the dollar index stood near 100.00 amid the cautious Fed outlook and safe-haven flows. Meanwhile, the lingering US government shutdown in its sixth week exacerbated the US fiscal uncertainty. Additionally, this delayed the key economic data, raising investors’ caution. For now, the market remains uncertain about a December Fed cut.
On the domestic side, the RBA kept interest rates unchanged at 3.6%, signaling fewer chances of a near-term easing. Meanwhile, China’s services PMI fell modestly to 52.6, hinting at steady but modest activity. Australia’s services PMI climbed to 52.5, reflecting the non-manufacturing sector’s resilience.
AUD/USD Daily Key Events
The major events in the day include:
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Changes
- ISM Services PMI
- President Trump Speaks
On Wednesday, traders await the US ADP non-farm employment changes, ISM services PMI, and speech from President Trump for further directional bias.
AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Bearish Momentum Intact Below 0.6500
The AUD/USD 4-hour chart shows the pair under selling pressure, trading around 0.6485 after failing to hold above 0.6500. The price remains below the key 20-day and 50-day MAs, reflecting continued bearish bias.
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The RSI stands near 35, with the pair approaching the oversold region, suggesting no signs of correction. The 200-period MA around 0.6550 acts as a dynamic resistance zone, capping further upside. For a potential uptrend, the pair must break above the 0.6520 and 0.6540 levels. Conversely, if it drops below 0.6470, its downside momentum will continue further.
Support Levels
Resistance Levels
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