Gold may have come under pressure early this week but HSBC sees that as just being a brief setback for the precious metal. The firm sees the rally in gold carrying over to the new year, with prices set to peak in the first half of 2026.
The key factors that HSBC are pointing to in driving the rally are safe haven flows, rising fiscal deficits, and renewed threats to the Fed’s independence as well as the US’ fiscal stability in general. Adding to that, the firm argues that strong inflows from ETFs and real money accounts will also continue to underpin prices.
In looking to the turn of the year though, HSBC says that fewer Fed rate cuts than expected could slow down the rally in gold but dollar weakness as a whole should keep the precious metal propped up through early 2026.
The firm see gold trading around $3,700 to $4,050 for the remainder of this year, with their year-end forecast at $3,950. As for next year, they see gold prices ranging between $3,600 to $4,400 generally with the peak setting in during 1H 2026 and set to surpass the $4,400 mark. As for their 2026 year-end forecast, they see gold settling at $3,800