- Gold weekly forecast turns slightly bearish after sharp profit-taking.
- A stronger dollar kept the gold under pressure, with a medium-term uptrend.
- Traders look ahead to initial jobless claims, Chicago PMI, remarks from FOMC members, and the Fed’s rate cut decisions for further policy cues.
The gold weekly forecast witnessed volatility this week as investors took profit after the record high rally and mixed market sentiment, shaped by softer US inflation data and expectations of Fed easing.
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Yellow metal has experienced a 55% growth rate year-to-date. However, it fell by over 6% this week, halting the nine-week winning streak. Earlier in the week, gold reached an all-time high near $4,381 before returning to $4,003 per ounce. T
his move was driven by easing US-China trade tensions and India’s declining physical gold demand post-Diwali. Consequently, gold recalibrated itself instead of continuing a downtrend, as analysts suggested it had outpaced the short-term economic factors.
In the US, the dollar strengthened after the inflation data came in softer but stable. The September CPI revealed a 0.3% MoM and 3.0% YoY increase, below the forecast. Meanwhile, the PMI data suggested unstable growth across sectors, reinforcing expectations of Fed easing at the Oct 29-30 meeting.
According to the CME FedWatch, future markets are priced at a 96% probability of rate cuts. The lower interest rates typically weigh on the greenback and support assets like gold.
Gold’s Key Events Next Week
The significant events next week include:
- Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement
- Fed Interest Rate Decision
- FOMC Press Conference
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Chicago PMI
- US GDP
- US Core PCE
Next week, traders look forward to initial jobless claims, the FOMC press conference, the Fed’s monetary policy and interest rate decision, US GDP, and the US Core PCE figures for insights into labor conditions and expectations of Fed easing and policy direction.
Gold’s Weekly Technical Forecast:
The gold chart indicates consolidation after its sharp rally in October. After it reached an all-time high near the $4,381 level, it corrected to close the week above $4,100. The price stays above the key moving averages, with the 20-day MA around $4,050 as the short-term support, suggesting a bullish bias.
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The RSI is 58, signaling an easing momentum, but there are no signs of a trend reversal. A decisive breach above the $4,150 level could extend gains towards the $4,250 and $4,300 levels. Conversely, dropping below the $4,000 level could lead to the $3,750 zone.
Gold Support Levels Forecast
Gold Resistance Levels Forecast
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