Gold prices climbed back above $4,000 per ounce this week, driven by escalating trade tensions between the US and China that rattled equity markets and renewed investor interest in safe-haven assets. The rally comes despite easing geopolitical concerns in West Asia, with market participants now closely watching US President Trump’s decision to impose 100 per cent retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods from November 1.
“Gold prices climbed back above $4,000 an ounce, driven by renewed trade tensions between the US and China. These tensions rattled the US markets and caused riskier assets to fall, overshadowing the easing geopolitical concerns in West Asia,” said Aksha Kamboj, Vice-President of the India Bullion and Jewellers’ Association and Executive Chairperson of Aspect Global Ventures.
The precious metal is on track for its eighth consecutive weekly gain, supported by multiple factors, including the ongoing US government shutdown and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence. “Gold is still on track for its eighth consecutive weekly gain. In the short term, the combination of easing geopolitical risks and a stronger US dollar may continue to put pressure on gold prices. However, any pullback is likely to attract buyers at lower levels,” said Darshan Desai, CEO of Aspect Bullion & Refinery.
Record inflows into gold ETFS
Indian investors have shown unprecedented interest in gold, with September data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) revealing record inflows. Gold ETFs recorded their highest-ever monthly inflow of nearly $900 million, pushing total assets under management beyond the $10-billion mark. In rupee terms, gold ETFs added approximately ₹8,500 crore, taking total AUM past ₹90,000 crore.
“Gold ETFs saw their biggest-ever monthly inflow, nearly $900 million, pushing the total AUM beyond the $10-billion mark — a clear sign that investors are seeking safety amid market uncertainty and global volatility,” said Nikunj Saraf, CEO of Choice Wealth.
The surge in precious metals investment reflects a broader diversification trend among Indian investors. Silver ETFs also attracted significant attention, while multi-asset allocation funds saw nearly ₹5,000 crore in inflows, largely driven by gold and silver allocations. “Gold and other ETFs (including Silver) have witnessed the highest net inflows (to the tune of ₹16000 crore) across all mutual fund categories. This seems to be driven by the significant rally in gold & silver prices YTD, reflecting a FOMO effect amongst retail investors,” said Naval Kagalwala, COO & Head of Products at Shriram Wealth Ltd.
Market experts attribute the sustained demand to multiple global macro factors. “Anticipated interest rate cuts, stubborn inflation, slowing global growth, and persistent geopolitical tensions are driving investors towards safe haven assets. Fresh investments by central banks in gold and silver, coupled with record flows in bullion ETFs, further reinforce this demand,” said Kartik Jain, MD & CEO of Shriram AMC.
Festive demand
Looking ahead, domestic demand could receive a boost from the upcoming Diwali festival. “Domestically, the upcoming Diwali festival may boost gold demand, as festive buyers return to the market,” Kamboj added.
From a technical perspective, gold has support at $3,940-3,910, with resistance at $4,020-4,045, according to Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities Ltd. In Indian rupee terms, gold has support at ₹1,19,870-1,19,280, while resistance stands at ₹1,21,850-1,22,400.
Published on October 11, 2025