So here we are – smack in the middle of Thanksgiving week, and man, it’s exactly what I expected. Light volume, tech names getting whipsawed daily, and most traders trying to time every single move in this holiday chop.
NVIDIA getting hammered on some Meta/Google chip rotation story. Fed rate cut hopes driving everything one day, fears killing it the next.
It’s been crazy lately – tech winners and losers every single day. Kind of like throwing a dart and seeing what happens.
But you know what?
This is exactly when I start getting excited about swing opportunities that nobody else is paying attention to.
The Holiday Reality Check
We’re in full holiday mode now.
Tomorrow the market is closed, Friday’s a half-day, and institutional money is already mentally checked out.
Trying to day trade this mess is asking for trouble.
I’m watching SPY bounce around between key levels right now – we’re coming up against a major resistance area.
If we can hold above this resistance and close above it, it really opens the door to test the trend line and maybe work into a Santa Claus rally setup.
But until then? We’re probably going to bounce between this resistance zone and the support area below.
Here’s the thing though – while most traders are obsessing over timing the next Fed comment or trying to guess which tech name rips tomorrow, I’m hunting for something completely different.
My Holiday Swing Framework
All this tech volatility is creating serious opportunities in beaten-down quality names that have been building bases while most are panicking.
Here’s exactly what I’m hunting for:
Setup #1: The Oversold Reversal Base
I want stocks that have been beaten down but found clear support levels. Not just any support – areas where you can see buyers actually stepped in with conviction.
The key is finding that point of control on the volume profile – that price level where the most trading has happened.
When a stock clears above its point of control after building a base, that’s telling you the buyers who were trapped are now happy, and new money might start stepping in.
Setup #2: The Rounded Base Formation
This is my favorite pattern for holiday swing trades. You get this nice, controlled selloff that gradually finds support, then starts building a foundation.
No panic selling, no capitulation – just methodical base building.
What I love about rounded bases is they show you accumulation happening slowly. Smart money doesn’t announce itself with big volume spikes.
It builds positions quietly over time.
Setup #3: The Gap Fill Target
Here’s where holiday swings get really interesting – you want names with clear overhead gaps to fill. During light volume periods, these gaps become magnets when any buying pressure shows up.
The beauty of gap fills is they give you multiple target levels. You’re not trying to hit home runs – you want solid percentage moves over 2-3 weeks with clear spots to scale out.
The Entry Strategy That Actually Works
Forget trying to time perfect bottoms in this holiday chop. I’m looking to enter as close as possible to that point of control level – the area where buyers have already shown up.
Why?
Because that becomes your natural stop level. If we break below where buyers were willing to step in, you’re wrong about the setup, and you get out.
For options, I stick with monthly expirations that give the setup time to work. Usually at-the-money calls around your entry level. Nothing fancy – just giving yourself time for institutional money to notice what got oversold.
The Volume Profile Edge
During holiday weeks, volume profile becomes even more important because there’s less noise in the data. You can clearly see where buyers and sellers have been active, and where the real support and resistance levels sit.
I’m using this thin volume period to study these profiles and identify the levels that matter. When volume comes back, these levels become even more significant.
The Current Setup Hunt
Right now, I’m building a watchlist of quality non-tech names that fit this framework:
- Oversold but holding key support levels
- Clear point of control breaks developing
- Overhead gaps that create natural targets
- Volume profiles showing accumulation patterns
I’m not rushing into anything this week. Holiday trading is about preparation, not execution. But I want to be ready when volume returns and institutional money starts noticing what got oversold.
Your Action Plan
So while everyone’s arguing about whether tech is done or just getting started, whether the Fed cuts rates in December – I’m quietly hunting swing setups in quality names that nobody’s watching.
Use this quiet time to scout your next moves, study your volume profiles, and position for opportunities that can work over the next few weeks.
Come Monday when volume starts returning, I want to be ready with setups that have been building while everyone else was focused on timing the tech chaos.
The best swing opportunities often set up when nobody’s paying attention.
And right now? Nobody’s paying attention to much beyond the next Fed headline.
That’s exactly when you want to be hunting.
If you want to learn more about the system that made me millions in trading profits, check it out right here.