The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up by +0.41%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.02%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up by +0.60%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +0.44%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are up +0.63%.
US stock indexes are moving higher today as they recover some of this week’s sharp losses. Some mild short covering is boosting stocks ahead of Nvidia’s earnings results after today’s close. Nvidia’s earnings are seen as a bellwether for whether lofty valuations for tech stocks and massive capital spending in artificial intelligence remain justified.
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Alphabet is up more than +5% to lead megacap tech stocks higher after Google debuted an updated version of its artificial intelligence model, Gemini, that executives said represents a “massive jump” in reasoning and coding ability. Also, strength in chip makers is supporting gains in the broader market.
Limiting gains in the overall market is weakness in energy producers, as the price of WTI crude oil is down by more than 2%.
US MBA mortgage applications fell -5.2% in the week ended November 14, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -2.3% and the refinancing sub-index down -7.3%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose +3 bp to 6.37% from 6.34% in the prior week.
The US Aug trade deficit shrank to -$59.6 billion from -$78.2 billion in July, narrower than expectations of -$60.4 billion.
This week’s US economic schedule is very heavy as a deluge of delayed economic reports will be released. The minutes of the Oct 28-29 FOMC meeting will be released later today. Thursday brings weekly unemployment claims, the Sep unemployment report, the Philadelphia Fed report, Oct existing home sales, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey. Friday brings real earnings, the S&P US manufacturing and services PMI reports, the University of Michigan’s US consumer sentiment index, and the Kansas City Fed’s services activity report. Other delayed US economic reports are also expected to be released in the coming days, but have not yet been scheduled.
The markets are discounting a 48% chance of another -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10.
Q3 corporate earnings season is drawing to a close as 460 of the 500 S&P companies have released results. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 82% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021. Q3 earnings rose +14.6%, more than doubling expectations of +7.2% y/y.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 recovered from a 1-month low and is up +0.30%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.18%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 dropped to a 1-month low and closed down by -0.34%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) today are up by +3 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -0.8 bp to 4.106%. T-note prices are slightly higher today, as a -2% drop in WTI crude oil prices has lowered inflation expectations, a supportive factor for T-notes. Strength in stocks today has curbed some safe-haven demand for government debt and is limiting gains in T-notes. Also, supply pressures are negative for T-notes as the Treasury will auction $16 billion of 20-year T-bonds later today.
European government bond yields are mixed today. The 10-year German bund yield is down -1.5 bp to 2.691%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 1-month high of 4.595% and is up +1.0 bp to 4.564%.
UK Oct CPI eased to +3.6% y/y from +3.8% y/y in Sep. Oct core CPI eased to +3.4% y/y from +3.5% y/y in Sep.
Swaps are discounting a 4% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on December 18.
US Stock Movers
Strength in semiconductor stocks today is a supportive factor for the broader market. ON Semiconductor (ON) and Lam Research (LRCX) are up more than +3%. Also, Applied Materials (AMAT) and KLA Corp (KLAC) are up more than +2%. In addition, Nvidia (NVDA), ASML Holding NV (ASML), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are up more than +1%.
Energy producers and energy service providers are falling today, with the price of WTI crude oil down by more than 2%. APA Corp (APA) is down more than -5% and Valero Energy (VLO) is down more than -4%. Also, Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Devon Energy (DVN), and Phillips 66 (PSX) are down more than -3%. In addition, Diamondback Energy (FANG), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Exxon Mobil (XOM) are down more than -2%. Finally, Chevron (CVX) is down more than -2% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials.
Alphabet (GOOGL) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after Google debuted an updated version of its artificial intelligence model, Gemini, that executives said represents a “massive jump” in reasoning and coding ability.
Dycom Industries (DY) is up more than +15% after signing an agreement to acquire Power Solutions LLC, one of the Mid-Atlantic’s largest electrical contractors serving data centers, for $1.95 billion.
La-Z-Boy Inc (LZB) is up more than +10% after announcing Q2 sales of $522.5 million, stronger than the consensus of $517.7 million.
Unity Software (U) is up more than +5% after announcing it is working with Epic Games to bring Unity games into Fortnite.
MP Materials (MP) is up more than +4% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of the stock with a recommendation of buy and a price target of $77.
Lowe’s (LOW) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after raising its 2026 total sales forecast to $86.0 billion from a previous forecast of $84.5 billion-$85.5 billion, above the consensus of $85.36 billion.
Insulet Corp (PODD) is up more than +2% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $400.
Constellation Energy (CEG) is up more than +2% as it plans to restart its Three Mile Island nuclear plant and is getting $1 billion in backing from the US government as the Trump administration pushes to add more atomic power to the electric grid.
Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) is down more than -47% after a Phase 3 trial of mitapivat in patients 16 and older with sickle cell disease met one primary endpoint but missed another.
Eversource Energy (ES) is down more than -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after its request to sell its subsidiary, Aquarion Water Company, was rejected by Connecticut regulators.
QuantumScape Corp (QS) is down more than -3% after HSBC downgraded the stock to reduce from hold with a price target of $10.50.
Gitlab Inc (GTLB) is down more than -2% after Truist Securities downgraded the stock to hold from buy.
Earnings Reports(11/19/2025)
Lowe’s Cos Inc (LOW), NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW), Target Corp (TGT), TJX Cos Inc/The (TJX), Valvoline Inc (VVV), Viking Holdings Ltd (VIK), Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM).
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