- The GBP/USD forecast shows a bearish bias amid weak UK GDP data and increased optimism around the US shutdown resolution.
- The GDP data revealed a 0.1% QoQ rise in Q3 of 2025 instead of the expected 0.2% figure.
- Traders await commentary from MPC Greene and FOMC officials for further impetus.
The GBP/USD forecast shows a mild bearish momentum as the pair trades lower around 1.3140 following the disappointing UK GDP data. The UK GDP came in at 0.1% QoQ in Q3, confirming slower economic growth, falling from 0.3% in Q2.
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On a monthly basis, GDP witnessed a 0.1% contraction in September. Meanwhile, the Industrial and Manufacturing Production also missed forecasts, contracting further. This softer-than-expected data bolstered expectations of a December rate cut by the Bank of England.
Additionally, the earlier UK labor market report came in softer. The unemployment rate climbed to 5.0%, and the wage growth declined as well. These developments weigh on the pound sterling, as traders price in a flexible monetary outlook.
From the US, the greenback strengthened modestly amid heightened optimism surrounding the US government reopening this week. The House of Representatives voted 222 to 209 to approve the funding package on Wednesday. The shutdown lift is likely to release major economic data that were delayed earlier.
However, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt noted on Wednesday that the October jobs and inflation data are unlikely to be released. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s opined a hawkish remarks and warned against premature policy easing, boosting the dollar further.
GBP/USD Daily Key Events
The major events in the day include:
- MPC Member Greene Speaks
- FOMC Member Daly Speaks
- FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
- FOMC Member Musalem Speaks
- FOMC Member Hammack Speaks
On Thursday, traders look ahead to speeches from MPC member Greene’s and FOMC members Daly, Kashkari, Musalem, and Hammack for further cues into monetary policies.
GBP/USD Technical Forecast: Selling Pressure Persists Under Key MAs
The GBP/USD 4-hour chart reflects a mild rebound in the pair as it trades near 1.3140. However, the momentum remains limited below key resistance levels. The price remains below the key 50-, 100-, and 200-period MAs, with continued selling pressure, underscoring the bearish momentum. The 50-period MA, around 1.3147 is an immediate resistance zone. While the 200-MA near 1.3300 acts as a catalyst for a continued downside.
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The RSI holds near 50, indicating a neutral to weak momentum. A break above 1.3150 could pave the way for the bulls to come into control. Conversely, a failure to hold above 1.3100 could extend the losses towards the next support zone.
Support Levels
Resistance Levels
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