We locked in massive gains on Generac—and the timing couldn’t have been more perfect.
Back in late winter and early spring, we loaded up on GNRC shares in anticipation of hurricane season.
The logic was simple: every year from June 1st through November, people need backup generators when storms knock out power.
We entered our options positions and watched Generac climb to $98 per share between April and September.
That’s not a typo – $98 per share in five months.
The Data Backs Up the Pattern
Here’s what the numbers tell us about seasonal patterns: Generac has historically shown this exact behavior during active hurricane seasons. Back in 2017, when Hurricanes Harvey and Irma hit, GNRC saw massive gains.
In 2021, the stock rose from around $300 in April to $450 by September—a $150-per-share move driven by anticipation of hurricane season.
The pattern is reliable because the business model is simple.
When the National Hurricane Center starts tracking storms, people don’t debate whether they need backup power. They buy generators.
Why We Exited When We Did
We cashed out our Generac options position for a 52.7% profit in 177 days… Well before the peak of hurricane season, when shares were trading above $200.
Why then? Because September 10th typically marks the peak of hurricane activity, and we’ve learned to take money off the table when everyone else is getting greedy.
Good thing we did.
Hurricane season turned out to be relatively tame this year—no major storms hit the U.S. Now, Generac is trading at $154, down from our exit point above $200.
Peter Lynch Had It Right
This validates everything Peter Lynch taught about investing in what you can observe.
Lynch ran Fidelity’s Magellan Fund and averaged 29% annual returns from 1977 to 1990 using this exact approach. See people buying Dunkin’ Donuts coffee? Buy Dunkin’ stock.
Notice everyone heading to Home Depot after storms? That’s your next trade.
The key is understanding that seasonal trades aren’t guaranteed—they’re probability plays.
Hurricane seasons can be tame, like 2024, or brutal like 2017. But the setup repeats every single year, and that’s where the edge comes from.
The Cycle Repeats Every Year
Looking at historical data, Generac typically follows this cycle: sells off in winter when hurricane demand fades, then rebounds in spring as investors position for the next season.
In 2022, GNRC dropped from $300 in September to $200 by December, then bounced back to $250 by April 2023.
The beautiful part? There’s always next year. Hurricane season will return in June, and if Generac shares sell off this winter like they typically do, we’ll be ready to get back in come spring.
YOUR ACTION PLAN
This isn’t just about Generac. Weather-driven demand creates opportunities across multiple sectors. Salt companies like Compass Minerals spike during heavy snow. HVAC stocks run during heat waves. Insurance companies move on storm damage projections.
The market gives you the same opportunities every single year. You just have to be disciplined enough to take them—and smart enough to exit when the setup changes.