- The EUR/USD forecast shows a slight rebound towards 1.1510 amid a slightly subdued dollar.
- Germany’s industrial growth boosted the euro, offsetting the dollar’s support from US ADP data.
- Traders await the EUR retail sales and commentary from FOMC Members Barr, Williams, and Hammock for further policy cues.
The EUR/USD forecast shows the pair slightly edged up on Thursday, trading near 1.1510 amid diverging domestic and global developments. The Dollar Index (DXY) traded lower near 100.00 due to the persistent Federal government shutdown, the longest in history, which dampened investor confidence and raised concerns over economic disruption.
Meanwhile, the US ADP jobs data revealed a 42k rise in private sector payrolls in October after a 29k decline in September. However, the broader sentiment regarding the greenback remains mixed.
Additionally, the Fed’s Miran acknowledged the upbeat jobs data and signaled that a December rate cut remains possible, citing restrictive policy conditions. While Fed Powell maintained that the labor market is easing gradually, a December cut remains uncertain.
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Across the Atlantic, the euro showed modest strength amid the improved risk sentiment and a rebound in European equities. This supports the shared currency, as investors reacted positively to the stronger corporate earnings, which helped ease fears of a recession. The ECB kept the deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% for a third consecutive meeting.
German industrial production revealed a 1.3% MoM rise in November, recovering from last month’s -4.3% decline. However, it still fell short of the expected forecast of a 3.0% increase. This data points to a partial recovery in factory activity, but the momentum stays weak.
From a global tariffs perspective, the US Supreme Court questions the legality of President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which could significantly affect global trade. This concern, together with the stronger euro earnings outlook and declining risk aversion, boosted the euro while weighing on the dollar.
EUR/USD Daily Key Events
The major events in the day include:
- Retail Sales m/m
- Spanish 10-year Bond Auction
- German Buba President Nagel Speaks
- US Natural Gas Storage
- Challenger Job Cuts y/y
- FOMC Member Barr speaks
- FOMC Member Williams speaks
- FOMC Member Hammack speaks
On Thursday, traders await the EUR retail sales m/m, a speech from German Buba President Nagel, and speeches from FOMC Members Barr, Williams, and Hammack for insights into further policy direction and growth momentum.
EUR/USD Technical Forecast: Consolidating Near 20-MA
The EUR/USD 4-hour chart suggests the pair trades near 1.1510 after recovering from its earlier losses around 1.1470. The price remains above the 20-day MA, suggesting easing short-term selling pressure. However, it remains below the 100- and 200-period MAs near 1.1560 and 1.1645, capping further bullish bias.
The RSI under 50.0 signals that buyers are yet to reclaim control. For a potential short-term reversal, a breach above 1.1520 is needed to test the 1.1560 and 1.1600 levels. Conversely, a drop below 1.1500 could trigger a renewed selling pressure towards the weekly lows.
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Support Levels
Resistance Levels
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