I just told over a thousand people on a live stream, I’m still investing in Seabridge.
They probably think I’ve lost my mind.
After all, we recommended this stock at $11.76.
It hit almost $30. That’s over 200% gains in a few months.
Normal people would be taking profits and moving on.
But here’s what normal people don’t understand: Seabridge isn’t expensive at $23.
It’s still dirt cheap.
The Math That Wall Street Ignores
RBC Capital just released a study showing that development-stage gold companies trade at an average of 55% of their Net Asset Value.
Seabridge?
It’s trading at less than 10% of NAV.
That NAV calculation was done when gold was at $1,742 an ounce. When CEO Rudy Fronk updated those numbers to current metal prices, the NAV jumped from $8 billion to over $30 billion after tax.
The company’s market cap? $2.2 billion.
Why the CEO Hasn’t Sold a Single Share
Rudy Fronk has 95% of his net worth in Seabridge common stock. Zero shares sold during the run from $11 to $30.
“I’ve got a very patient wife,” he told me. “She allows me to be all in on this investment.”
When I see a CEO who won’t sell a single share after a 200% move, that tells me everything I need to know about what’s coming.
The Deal Everyone’s Waiting For
Seabridge has been in active talks with major mining companies for over a decade. Now something’s changed.
“My expectation is by the end of the year, the world will know who our partner is,” Rudy told me.
Three years ago, big gold companies were generating maybe $1-2 billion in free cash flow annually.
Today? They’re going to generate $6-8 billion. They’ve got the capital, they need the reserves, and Seabridge has the world’s largest undeveloped gold project.
Why I’m Not Selling
If this deal gets done and Seabridge keeps 40-49% of the project while their partner does the heavy lifting, we’re not talking about a 200% gain anymore.
Rudy’s studies show this project will generate over $25 billion in EBITDA in the first five years of production.
Seabridge keeping half of that.
Give me any reasonable multiple on those earnings and tell me this stock is expensive at $23.
The Infrastructure Story Nobody Talks About
When Seabridge bought this project in 2000, there was zero infrastructure.
Now?
The Canadian government has spent over $700 million extending the power grid to the area. Seabridge has 245 megawatts of hydro power locked up with port facilities within trucking distance.
All the expensive infrastructure work is done. Courtesy of the government.
YOUR ACTION PLAN
This is one of my largest positions, and I’m not selling.
If anything, I’m adding on any major dips that aren’t based on fundamental news.
Keep a core position for the long term. This isn’t a quick flip. This is a multi-year story that could be a genuine multi-bagger from current levels.
This isn’t guaranteed money. There are lawsuits from neighboring claims. Permitting could get complicated. The deal might not happen on Rudy’s timeline.
But even if gold drops to $2,000, this project was generating an $8 billion NAV at $1,742 gold. The math still works.
No one wanted to buy Seabridge when it was $11, and now they are wishing they had.
If this deal happens, they will likely be thinking the same thing, but it may not be at $23 anymore, and that price may look cheap!
Position size appropriately. Know the risks. But don’t let a 200% move scare you away from what could be a genuinely massive long-term winner.
Sometimes the best trades are the ones that feel too expensive after they’ve already worked.
If you want to see my interview with Rudi, you can watch it here.