Crypto analyst Adez has revealed what most traders are missing following the Bitcoin price rally to $116,000 earlier this week. The analyst suggested there is no reason to be bullish right now, as BTC is likely to decline further before breaking out to the upside.
What Traders Are Missing From The Bitcoin Price Action
In an X post, Adez noted that the Bitcoin price pumped from around $111,000 to $115,500 and that everyone thinks a breakout is happening. However, the analyst opined that the rally was just a trap. He explained that BTC actually swept the Value Area High at $114,600, but the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) barely moved.
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Adez further revealed that the open interest was completely flat, indicating that zero money came in for the move on Binance. The funding rate was also still at 0.01%, which is “dead neutral,” and nobody was excited about the Bitcoin price rally. In other words, he explained that the breakout happened with no institutional support, no new capital, and no retail FOMO, which is why the analyst believes the move was just a liquidity grab.
As to what happens next, Adez stated that this is a classic pattern after sweeping resistance with weak conviction, which leads to a sharp reversal. He urged investors and traders to watch the next few H4 candles to see if the Bitcoin price rejects back below $114,600, forms a lower low, and the CVD starts dropping.
For a break of structure to be confirmed, the Bitcoin price needs to break below the H1 at 114,839 and then the H4 at 113,560. Once that happens, Adez predicts that there is an 85% probability that BTC will head to the real support between $104,000 and $106,000 within seven to ten days. Notably, BTC has broken these two levels and may now be at risk of dropping to these support levels as the analyst has predicted.
Why This Price Action Is Plausible
Adez explained that this Bitcoin price action makes sense because November is historically 60% bullish and that Q4 has averaged 65% wins. However, he noted that these rallies didn’t start from thin air at $115,000. Instead, they start from value zones where institutions can accumulate before BTC rallies.
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The analyst highlighted $109,000 as the point of control, while between $104,000 and $106,000 is the Value Area Low, where there are also billions in buy orders. He added that the current Bitcoin price action is floating above real support, which is exactly where smart money dumps before the real move begins.
As such, Adez expects retail to buy the breakout at $115,000 and get stopped out on the reversal. Then, they miss the real entry between $104,000 and $106,000. On the other hand, Smart Money sells into this pump, waits for the sweep down, then loads up at between $104,000 and $106,000 and rides the Bitcoin price rally to above $130,000.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $113,000, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com