The USDCAD spent much of yesterday consolidating within a familiar swing area between 1.3968 and 1.3975 — a zone that has proven technically significant in recent weeks. This area had served as a ceiling in early October, before the pair broke higher on October 9 and then successfully retested it as support on October 10. That transition from resistance to support cemented its importance, and price action last week reinforced that point: both on Wednesday and Friday, the pair dipped into this range and found willing buyers, prompting rebounds each time.
Holding that area again on Monday added to its technical weight, underscoring renewed buying interest and defensive strength at those levels. In today’s session, momentum has carried the pair higher, pushing it back above the 100-hour moving average, currently near 1.39957 — an encouraging step for the bullish camp.
However, despite that intraday progress, buyers still face a key test. The pair remains below both yesterday’s high and the falling 200-hour moving average at 1.40156, which now represents a near-term barrier to upside continuation. To shift the bias decisively back in favor of the bulls, the price needs to get and stay above the 200-hour MA; doing so would open the door toward higher targets and signal that buyers have regained control of the short-term trend.
As discussed in the video above, these technical levels mark an important inflection point. Buyers are making a push, but for now, there’s still work to be done before the move higher can gain sustained traction.