Let’s be frank: we all wished we’d invested in Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock only a few years ago. Anyone who bought a £10,000 stake when we were all sent behind our doors in 2020 would now be sitting on a pot of around £120,000. This is, of course, assuming they managed to avoid the temptation to snatch profits along the way.
Even those who started buying at the beginning of 2025 would be up around 30%!
But where will the share price be one year from now? For a bit of fun, I decided to ask ChatGPT.
Given that its owner OpenAI recently agreed a monster deal with the chip-making juggernaut, surely the artificial intelligence (AI) bot would only have positive things to say?
Big numbers
According to ChatGPT, analysts have a consensus price target of between $200 and $225 on the stock. As I type, it currently stands at $181 a pop. Using the higher number, this would imply a further gain of 24% from where we stand.
Some bullish brokers went so far as to suggest that $240+ could be achieved, assuming AI demand keeps growing.
There are a few more cautious views out there. Some analysts only think a more modest gain from here is likely. Even so, the bot’s output suggests that the company is overwhelmingly regarded as a Strong Buy among the brightest, experienced and best-informed brains in the City.
For its part, Chat GPT said the “most likely” result would be “somewhere between $200 and $240” one year from now.
What goes up…
So why does this concern me? Look, Nvidia’s a great company. It currently drives the AI revolution, generating billions upon billions in revenue in the process. In CEO Jensen Huang, it has the sort of visionary leader that any company would crave.
But it’s also vital to consider reasons for why Nvidia might falter.
For one, growth expectations could be reduced if AI spending is unexpectedly cut — not ideal when the stock already trades on a relatively high earnings multiple. The emergence of a new overseas competitor could also erode margins. Geopolitical wobbles or supply chain interruptions — both beyond the company’s control — could hammer sentiment as well.
And yet, analysts (and the bot) think the share price is heading higher.
Caution advised
To be clear, I would never think of solely using ChatGPT to pick stocks. I would only ever use it as springboard for more in-depth research. We must remember that AI itself is still in its infancy.
Personally, I’m uncomfortable with investing directly in Nvidia stock either, at least at the current level. I have no better idea than anyone else where markets or individual shares are going next. However, I’m wary of the seemingly unending positivity surrounding the firm. A complete consensus on anything is comforting. It’s also potentially dangerous.
Instead, I’m continuing to get my exposure via a low-cost global exchange-traded fund. This invests in thousands of companies from around the world, including the celebrated chip-maker.
Sure, this means any further gains made by Nvidia will be heavily diluted. But it also protects me from a massive crash in the share price because my money is so well diversified.
It makes it less likely that I’ll panic in the event of a market-wide meltdown too.