Trump’s statement came in the background of China not buying a single tonne of soybeans this season (September 2025-August 2026) so far. This has put pressure on soybean prices, which are currently ruling at $10 a bushel ($371 or ₹32,600 a tonne).
US President Donald Trump’s statement on Tuesday that Washington will stop importing soybean oil from China is unlikely to have any impact on Beijing, analysts and industry watchers say.
Trump’s statement came in the background of China not buying a single tonne of soybeans this season (September 2025-August 2026) so far. This has put pressure on soybean prices, which are currently ruling at $10 a bushel ($371 or ₹32,600 a tonne).
“They (Chinese buyers) have purchased zero US soybeans for delivery. We continue to hope and anticipate that leaders of China and the US will reach a trade agreement,” said Kirk Leeds, CEO of Iowa Soybeans Association.
This marks the first time in over two decades that China has completely halted soybean purchases from the US during the peak harvest season. “The trade war and retaliatory tariffs — currently totalling a net difference of 20 per cent on US soybeans have impacted whole soybean exports. But at this time, US soybeans are still less expensive than South American origin,” said Grant Kimberly, Executive Director of Iowa Soybeans Association.
Paying premium to Brazil
While ignoring US soybeans, China has been buying the oilseed from Brazil at a premium. Trade analysts say that China began preparing for imports without US soybeans since its dispute with Washington broke out during Trump’s first term in 2018.
“China has assiduously prepared to snub US soybeans in favour of Brazil. Trump’s second term has provided a perfect opportunity,” said an executive of an export inspection firm, who did not wish to be identified.
Soon after the trade dispute broke out in January 2018 — when the US imposed 20-50 per cent tariffs on Chinese solar panels and washing machines — the Chinese leadership began preparing a long-term plan to hit back at the US, if required. In particular, it focussed on imports of agricultural products from the US.
Brazil’s soybean production was 95.7 million tonnes (mt) in 2015-16 and 114 mt in 2016-17. In the 2025-26 season, the output is estimated at a record high of 175 mt. During the same period, the US production has stagnated at around 116-117 mt.
Improving infrastructure
At the same time, US soybean exports increased to a record 61.66 mt in the 2020-21 season and are expected to be at a six-year low of 45.86 mt in the 2025-26 season. Brazil’s exports in the 2025-26 season are projected at 112 mt from 108 mt a year ago and 86.11 mt in 2020-21.
“China did a few things to help Brazil increase its soybean exports. First, it began to improve Brazil’s infrastructure. Second, it improved its port facilities,” said the executive.
China has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in Brazilian ports and is actively developing the Latin American nation’s railways. Kofco is investing $285 million to construct a new agricultural exports terminal at the Port of Santos, while Chinese firms are working on improving the Port of São Luís.
“All these resulted in quicker transportation of soybeans and other agricultural commodities from the farm to the ports,” he said. In view of these developments, the loading time for soybeans from Brazil decreased to 60 days from 120 days.
Frustrated US growers
While Brazilian growers are enjoying an assured market and a premium, US growers have been left at a disadvantage. “US growers are nervous and frustrated as they continue to harvest another large crop of soybeans,” said Leeds.
“China has chosen not to purchase any new crop of US soybeans as a negotiation tactic,” said Kimberly, who termed it a “political choice”.
Tom Adam, Board of Directors at Iowa Soybeans Association, said American farmers can store their crop. Prices for May and June 2026 are unchanged from last year. “In general, the consensus is that the growth in world soybean consumption matches the supply growth,” he said.
Kimberly said the mood among US farmers is one of “concern and frustration”. “The American Soybean Association has described the situation as ‘dire’ for the industry. Farmers are facing rising input costs, falling prices, and limited market access. Some are storing their crops, hoping for better prices later, while others fear they may not survive another season without significant support,” he said.
Mitigation bridge
The Iowa Soybean and American Soybean Associations have expressed their concerns to Congressional leaders, said Leeds. Kimberly said they have asked the US administration to hold trade negotiations immediately to restore access to the Chinese market.
Kimberly said the Trump Administration will likely come out with a trade mitigation bridge payment to help farmers. Adam said the US Soybeans Export Council (USSEC) has been diligently working to find displaced markets that Brazil can no longer fill as its soybeans are all going to China.
However, Ameer Mehdi Buhari, President and CEO, Agcore Trading, said it may be too late for US exporters if any trade breakthrough happens between Washington and Beijing now.
“I don’t think the Chinese volume can be covered by other markets. China staying out of the US market has driven values to a historical low on the Chicago Board of Trade and CME futures,” he said.
Largest soy oil producer
On the other hand, China may not find a problem in exporting soybean oil as it is finding new buyers. In July this year, it sold over 1.2 lakh tonnes of oil to India, luring buyers with a discount.
According to the USDA, China is the largest producer of soybean oil, with its production in the 2024-25 season estimated at 19.57 mt. It is expected to rise to 20.52 mt in 2025-26, and domestic production is projected at 20.62 mt.
The US accounted for 43 per cent of the Chinese export of used cooking oil. Washington’s ban on the imports could lead to other countries buying it for biofuel, analysts said.
Adam said crushing of soybeans by the US has been increasing to meet biofuel demand. Analysts say China could have anticipated these developments and could be ready with an alternative plan.
Published on October 16, 2025