I’ve been sitting here looking at these markets after Friday’s close, and honestly?
I’m getting a little nervous. Nasdaq just hit fresh records, everyone’s pricing in a 96% chance the Fed cuts rates Wednesday, and futures are barely budging like this is all just… automatic.
You know what I’ve learned?
When everyone agrees on something – especially 96% certainty – that’s usually when I start thinking about the other side.
Why I Need Some Shorts Before Fed Week
Look, I’ve got plenty of longs working right now. But heading into Fed week with a book full of long positions and everyone this certain about the outcome?
That makes me uncomfortable. Plus, Empire State Manufacturing is expected to drop from 11.9 to 4.5 today – not exactly screaming strength, but here we are at record highs.
Even when everyone “knows” what’s coming, Fed meetings find ways to surprise people.
I want some protection.
ODFL: Perfect Bearish Setup
So I’m scanning for shorts, and ODFL jumps off the page. This thing’s been a total dog – down 18% this year while the major indices are up double digits.
But here’s what really gets my attention: the technical setup is screaming bearish.
ODFL has squeeze signals firing red on multiple timeframes – weekly, daily, and intraday.
Think of squeezes like pressure building up before a big move.
When they fire bearish like this across different time periods, it’s telling me this stock wants to go lower, soon.
Then there’s the moving average structure – completely bearish.
The short-term averages are below the medium-term ones, which are below the long-term ones.
EMAs are stacked bearishly on both the weekly and daily time frames.
That’s textbook downtrend stuff. You’re not fighting the current, you’re swimming with it.
Your Action Plan
Here’s the thing – ODFL is transportation.
If the economy is really as strong as these record highs suggest, wouldn’t transportation companies be ripping higher too? Instead, we’re seeing massive underperformance.
That divergence usually gets resolved, and not in favor of the laggard.
The setup gives me protection if the Fed surprises or if Powell says something that spooks the market.
And if I’m wrong and everything rips higher?
My longs will more than cover any losses on this short.
Sometimes the best trades are the ones that help you sleep better at night.
Looking at ODFL’s bearish signals while sitting on a book full of longs heading into Fed week? Yeah, I’m taking the shot.
We’ll see what Wednesday brings.
Speaking of Wednesday’s Fed meeting…
Look, I’ve been thinking about this FOMC decision all weekend, and honestly?
This isn’t just another rate cut announcement. We’re looking at Trump vs. Powell in what could be the biggest market catalyst of the year.
Will Powell cave to Trump’s pressure and cut rates? Or will he stick it to the President after months of getting bullied?
Either way, this decision is going to move markets HARD – which is exactly why I’m positioning with trades like ODFL right now.
Bryan and Karim are doing a Trump vs. Powell FOMC Watch Party this Wednesday, and if you’re trading around this announcement, you need to be there:
Wednesday, September 18th Chat opens: 1:00pm ET LIVE broadcast: 1:15pm ET
They’re breaking down: • Why this announcement is bigger than any previous FOMC meeting • How the Trump vs. Powell drama impacts the decision • All possible scenarios and what they mean for your trades • How this could set up a “dream scenario” for traders
100% FREE. No pay-per-view required.
This is where you want to be when two of the most powerful men in finance go head-to-head. See you there!