Editor’s Note: The upcoming Fed Announcement is setting up to be a monster event.
Will President Donald Trump do something?
Does Fed Chair Jerome Powell have an ace up his sleeve?
We’ll know in just 7 days.
To get you prepared for the potential aftershock, Bryan and Karim are hosting a FREE Trump vs. Powell Watch Party at 1 p.m. ET on the day of the FOMC.
– Ryan Fitzwater, Publisher
Yesterday, The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a down revision of about 911,000 jobs from April 2024 to March 2025.
That’s an average of 76,000 initially reported jobs per month that were non-existent. A pretty big number.
In The War Room and Catalyst Cash-Outs, we had several members asking…
“Shouldn’t somebody get fired for this?”
“How could those numbers be so off?”
Those are valid questions, but I think people are missing the real problem.
So in today’s Trade of the Day, I want to clarify why big job revisions like this can happen and who’s really to blame.
How the Bureau of Labor Statistics works
The Bureau of Labor Statistic are just bean counters. They’re not responsible for gathering the actual job numbers.
Instead, the BLS receives job data from all these different companies that are required to send the numbers by a certain time, and the BLS then compiles that data.
Why that process is going off the rails
Over the last 20 years, the companies sending them the job data have not been getting their numbers in on time. Overall, the participation rate from these employers has dropped by about 50%.
So every month, the BLS is supposed to get all these numbers coming in, but if they only get 40% of the numbers in initially, then they get all these new numbers coming in later and have to send out a revision.
That’s how you get all these up-and-down revisions since the numbers are typically coming in late.
How they could fix this
As a trader, I understand this can be confusing and cause mistrust of what’s really going on in the economy
Just know it’s not the BLS’s fault.
The blame needs to be placed on the source of the numbers because they’re not sending in on time.
Maybe Congress should say to the companies reporting “hey, get the job numbers in on time or there’s a $50 million penalty for companies with a $10 billion market cap.” That might help us get some better clarity on the current job outlook.
YOUR ACTION PLAN
Overall, this latest job revision makes Powell’s decision even more critical.
I think we could be for an even bigger surprise from the Fed Chairman next week.
With so much potential for an economic explosion, Bryan and I are already getting prepared in Catalyst Cash-Outs. We’ll be making a 0DTE trade during next Tuesday during our livestream to take advantage of any volatility.
Click here to login to Cash-Outs and see our latest alerts.
Plus, next Wednesday Bryan and I will be hosting a FREE watch party for the FOMC announcement.
This is your opportunity to see how we’re reacting to the Fed’s announcement and prepare your portfolio for any big surprises.